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Forecasting Research Institute, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
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EQMs reveal that explanation quality can be quantitatively assessed, offering a more reliable indicator of forecasting accuracy than traditional methods.
Simulated environments can revolutionize forecasting by providing immediate resolutions to complex probabilistic questions that are often elusive in the real world.
LLMs get *worse* at forecasting high-stakes events like epidemics and financial crises as they get more capable, because they aggressively extrapolate growth and overestimate tail risk.
