Oliver Fuhrer

A data-driven weather model now rivals operational NWP for 1 km resolution forecasts over complex Alpine terrain, but struggles with localized wind extremes.

Deterministic weather models can match dedicated probabilistic ensembles within 0.04–0.13 CRPSS at a 10-day lead time simply by perturbing raw network weights at inference without any retraining.

Machine learning isn't just improving weather predictions; it's demanding a complete overhaul of how we develop and deliver forecasting services.