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HawkesRank introduces a dynamic centrality measure for networks based on multivariate Hawkes point processes, modeling both exogenous drivers and endogenous amplification to quantify influence. It overcomes limitations of static centrality measures by incorporating event intensities, enabling real-time importance ranking and adaptability to shocks. Empirical analysis on online communication platforms demonstrates that HawkesRank outperforms static centrality metrics in tracking system activity.
HawkesRank offers a dynamic, event-driven approach to centrality that surpasses static measures by adapting to shocks and tracking real-time activity, revealing the limitations of traditional methods like PageRank.
Quantifying influence in networks is important across science, economics, and public health, yet widely used centrality measures remain limited: they rely on static representations, heuristic network constructions, and purely endogenous notions of importance, while offering little semantic connection to observable activity. We introduce HawkesRank, a dynamic framework grounded in multivariate Hawkes point processes that models exogenous drivers (intrinsic contributions) and endogenous amplification (self- and cross-excitation). This yields a principled, empirically calibrated, and adaptive importance measure. Classical indices such as Katz centrality and PageRank emerge as mean-field limits of the framework, clarifying both their validity and their limitations. Unlike static averages, HawkesRank measures importance through instantaneous event intensities, enabling prediction, transparent endo-exo decomposition, and adaptability to shocks. Using both simulations and empirical analysis of emotion dynamics in online communication platforms, we show that HawkesRank closely tracks system activity and consistently outperforms static centrality metrics.
