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The study uses Bayesian structural time-series (BSTS) causal inference on satellite ocean color data to assess the impact of nickel processing expansion at the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP) on coastal water clarity. The analysis reveals a causal link between IMIP expansion, particularly the transition to high-pressure acid leaching, and a significant deterioration in coastal water clarity, evidenced by increased turbidity. This degradation, corroborated by land cover analysis showing built-area growth and tree cover loss, results in euphotic zone shoaling in oligotrophic waters, potentially harming coral reef ecosystems.
Indonesia's nickel boom is clouding its coastal waters: satellite data reveals a clear causal link between nickel processing expansion and significant turbidity increases, threatening coral reefs.
Indonesia's nickel ore export ban has driven rapid expansion of smelting and hydrometallurgical processing capacity at the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP), now the world's largest integrated nickel processing complex, on the coast of Central Sulawesi. Whether this industrialization has degraded the adjacent marine environment remains unquantified. We apply Bayesian structural time-series (BSTS) causal inference to a multi-decadal, multi-sensor satellite ocean color record of the diffuse attenuation coefficient at 490 nm, $K_d(490)$, to test for a causal link between IMIP expansion and nearshore turbidity change. A consensus structural breakpoint, a significant posterior causal effect estimated against a Banda Sea counterfactual, and a distribution-free placebo rank test collectively establish that coastal water clarity deteriorated after the transition from initial nickel pig iron production to hyper-expansion of high-pressure acid leaching facilities for battery-grade nickel. Satellite-derived land cover analysis independently corroborates this timing, showing substantial built-area growth and concurrent tree cover loss within the IMIP footprint. The resulting euphotic zone shoaling occurs in oligotrophic waters supporting high marine biodiversity, where even moderate optical degradation may impair coral photosynthesis and compress depth-dependent reef habitat. These findings quantify a marine environmental cost absent from Indonesia's mineral downstreaming policy discourse and demonstrate a transferable, satellite-based quasi-experimental framework for causal impact assessment at coastal industrial sites in data-limited tropical settings.
