Conditional Total Correlation and the Serial Depth of Adaptive Parallel Sampling

Motivated by parallel decoding in masked diffusion models, we study adaptive parallel sampling of discrete vectors: in each round, a deterministic policy selects unrevealed coordinates on the basis of the values observed so far, and the selected coordinates are sampled independently from their exact conditional marginals. Approximation error is measured by forward Kullback-Leibler divergence, and serial depth is the minimum target-averaged number of rounds meeting a prescribed error budget. Our central result is an exact identity: the divergence of every policy equals the expected conditional total correlation accumulated over its reveal rounds, so conditional total correlation is the exact information cost of within-round parallelism. The identity yields zero-error schedules for finite-order Markov chains with round complexity proportional to the Markov order and logarithmic in sequence length, a matching logarithmic characterization of the Bernoulli walk at every fixed error budget, and a linear-versus-logarithmic separation between left-to-right and hierarchical reveal orders. Uniform random permutations require linearly many expected rounds at every fixed budget; their hard-cap round-error tradeoff is an exact integer-composition problem whose fixed-round asymptotics and joint-scaling frontier we determine. Uniform balanced binary strings have depth of order squared logarithm, and binary one-hot blocks have square-root depth, with rectangular versions realizing every polynomial exponent up to one half. These results separate serial depth from entropy and negative log-likelihood, and establish conditional-dependence structure as a fundamental determinant of parallelizability. Experiments with a masked diffusion language model show that the pseudo-cost distinguishes deployed decoding rules and that its policy rankings agree closely with the quality of self-sampled outputs.