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This paper introduces CaSKG, a counterfactual-causal skill graph framework designed to enhance the retrieval of procedural knowledge for large language model (LLM) agents. By constructing a high-recall directed candidate graph and employing direction-conditioned textual counterfactual probes, CaSKG effectively calibrates procedural relations, leading to significant improvements in task performance across multiple LLM backbones. The results demonstrate that CaSKG outperforms existing methods, achieving the highest task scores while also reducing the mean environment steps required for successful task completion.
Calibrating procedural relations in skill retrieval can boost task performance by over 10 points while streamlining execution efficiency.
Reusable skill libraries allow large language model (LLM) agents to reuse procedural knowledge across tasks, but they also turn memory access into a challenging retrieval problem. Full-library prompting preserves coverage at high context cost, vector retrieval returns compact neighborhoods but treats skills as independent text, and graph-based retrieval can recover workflow context only when the edges that carry relevance are reliable. We propose CaSKG, a counterfactual-causal skill graph framework that calibrates procedural relations before retrieval. CaSKG first builds a high-recall directed candidate graph from semantic, lexical, input/output, and structural evidence, with repair evidence and an optional LLM judge further refining candidate scores. It then applies direction-conditioned textual counterfactual probes that remove, substitute, and reorder skill pairs, aggregates the evidence with Bayesian smoothing, and publishes a state-filtered weighted graph for task-conditioned expansion. The graph is constructed offline and used without changing the downstream agent policy or task interface. Across six LLM backbones on ALFWorld ID-140 and ScienceWorld U211, CaSKG achieves the highest task score in all twelve combinations of model and benchmark. Relative to Graph-of-Skills (GoS), it improves the six-model macro-average ScienceWorld score from 72.62 to 80.50 and ALFWorld success from 80.01\% to 86.79\%, while reducing mean environment steps on both benchmarks. Qualitative and ablation analyses further show that calibrated edges help retrieval preserve prerequisites, state-changing actions, verification routines, and final completion steps. These results position edge-confidence calibration as an effective route to compact and executable skill retrieval at scale\footnote{Code is available at: https://github.com/ZhiyuanLi218/Caskg }.