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This paper provides updated resource estimates for breaking 256-bit Elliptic Curve Discrete Logarithm Problem (ECDLP) using Shor's algorithm, finding that it can be executed with <1200 logical qubits and <90 million Toffoli gates, or <1450 logical qubits and <70 million Toffoli gates. The analysis highlights the vulnerability of cryptocurrencies to fast-clock quantum computers, enabling on-spend attacks on public mempool transactions. The paper then surveys vulnerabilities in major cryptocurrencies, especially those using smart contracts or Proof-of-Stake, and advocates for a swift transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) alongside supportive public policy.
Quantum computers could crack some cryptocurrency security in minutes, not years, unless the community acts now.
This whitepaper seeks to elucidate implications that the capabilities of developing quantum architectures have on blockchain vulnerabilities and mitigation strategies. First, we provide new resource estimates for breaking the 256-bit Elliptic Curve Discrete Logarithm Problem, the core of modern blockchain cryptography. We demonstrate that Shor's algorithm for this problem can execute with either<1200 logical qubits and<90 million Toffoli gates or<1450 logical qubits and<70 million Toffoli gates. In the interest of responsible disclosure, we use a zero-knowledge proof to validate these results without disclosing attack vectors. On superconducting architectures with 1e-3 physical error rates and planar connectivity, those circuits can execute in minutes using fewer than half a million physical qubits. We introduce a critical distinction between fast-clock (such as superconducting and photonic) and slow-clock (such as neutral atom and ion trap) architectures. Our analysis reveals that the first fast-clock CRQCs would enable on-spend attacks on public mempool transactions of some cryptocurrencies. We survey major cryptocurrency vulnerabilities through this lens, identifying systemic risks associated with advanced features in some blockchains such as smart contracts, Proof-of-Stake consensus, and Data Availability Sampling, as well as the enduring concern of abandoned assets. We argue that technical solutions would benefit from accompanying public policy and discuss various frameworks of digital salvage to regulate the recovery or destruction of dormant assets while preventing adversarial seizure. We also discuss implications for other digital assets and tokenization as well as challenges and successful examples of the ongoing transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC). Finally, we urge all vulnerable cryptocurrency communities to join the ongoing migration to PQC without delay.
