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Climate change poses significant challenges to arid and semi-arid regions, where rising temperatures and variable precipitation patterns exert increasing pressure on water resources. This study investigates future climate projec - tions for southern Iraq, focusing on Basrah, Dhi Qar, and Al-Muthanna, using the LARS-WG8 stochastic weather generator driven by outputs from four CMIP6 global climate models under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Historical daily records (1995–2024) of precipitation, maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) were employed for model calibration and validation. The results indicate a consistent warming trend across the study area. Annual Tmax is projected to increase by approximately 3.1 °C under SSP2-4.5 and 4.6–4.9 °C under SSP5-8.5, while Tmin is expected to rise by 2.7–2.9 °C and 3.9–4.2 °C, respectively. This trend reflects a reduction in the diurnal temperature range and suggests intensified heat stress conditions. In parallel, projected annual precipi - tation exhibits a gradual decline, ranging from 3–6 mm in the near future to 5–10 mm in the far future. The com - bined effects of increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation highlight the growing climate vulnerability of southern Iraq and emphasize the urgent need for effective adaptation strategies. These findings provide valuable in - sights for climate risk assessment and support sustainable water resource management in arid and semi-arid regions.