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This study models chikungunya transmission using a vector-host dynamical system with asymptomatic infections and screening, revealing that current control strategies are insufficient due to persistent asymptomatic transmission. Analytical derivations and simulations demonstrate that asymptomatic carriers can sustain epidemics even with vector suppression, and that screening rate critically influences epidemic timing and magnitude. The findings support an enhanced policy incorporating early case screening to mitigate both initial waves and subsequent resurgences.
Asymptomatic chikungunya carriers can sustain epidemics even with aggressive vector control, necessitating early case screening to effectively manage outbreaks.
This paper addresses the challenge that, under China's current mosquito-control policy for chikungunya---\textit{clearing stagnant water, killing adult mosquitoes, and preventing bites}---epidemics can still recur and continue to rise. By constructing a vector--host dynamical model that incorporates asymptomatic infections and a screening rate, we derive approximate analytical expressions for the epidemic peak value and peak time, and reveal the intrinsic link between short-term transients and long-term outcomes. Simulations across three scenarios---human-seeded, mosquito-seeded, and joint human--mosquito-seeded---show that (i) even when the vector population is effectively suppressed, asymptomatic carriers can still sustain transmission; (ii) the effect of the screening rate on the peak time is non-monotonic, and there exists a critical threshold that maximizes the delay of the epidemic; and (iii) moderate screening can both suppress the first wave and avoid leaving an excessively large susceptible pool that would amplify subsequent waves. Accordingly, we upgrade the original policy to a \textit{Twelve-character} strategy for prevention, mitigation, and control---\textit{clearing stagnant water, killing adult mosquitoes, preventing bites, and screening cases early}---providing theoretical support for chikungunya and other mosquito-borne diseases.