Misrepresentation of Human Climate Fingerprint in DOE Report

A July 2025 report from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) made the key claim that the stratosphere has warmed since 2000, contrary to model projections and inconsistent with the expected anthropogenic fingerprint. The DOE report provided no references or data to support this claim. Its basis appears to be an unpublished figure comparing simulated and observed tropical trends in the temperature of the lower stratosphere (TLS), a layer extending from roughly 15 to 20 km above Earth's surface. The observed tropical TLS trends shown in the unpublished DOE figure are incorrect. When the correct observational data sets are used, model tropical TLS trends are consistent with satellite observations, and a model‐predicted anthropogenic fingerprint is identifiable with high confidence in observed latitude‐altitude profiles of tropical temperature change. An earlier rebuttal of the DOE “no human fingerprint” claim considered global‐mean temperature changes only and did not perform a pattern‐based fingerprint study. Unless corrected or retracted, the DOE report will continue to misinform policymakers and the public about the reality of human effects on climate.