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This paper introduces TRUST-ESD, a comprehensive framework designed to enhance enterprise strategic decision support by integrating risk calibration, governance awareness, and uncertainty management. By employing methods such as predictive utility estimation and CVaR-based downside-risk scoring, TRUST-ESD not only improves risk-adjusted utility by 7.95% but also significantly reduces risk exposure and enhances governance compliance compared to existing uncertainty-aware approaches. The findings underscore the importance of balancing value, reliability, and compliance in decision-making processes, demonstrating that a multifaceted approach yields superior outcomes in uncertain environments.
TRUST-ESD achieves a remarkable 7.95% improvement in risk-adjusted utility while ensuring governance compliance and reducing risk exposure.
Enterprise strategic decision support requires AI systems that are not only accurate, but also uncertainty-aware, risk-calibrated, explainable, and governance-compliant. This paper proposes TRUST-ESD, a risk-calibrated and governance-aware framework for enterprise decision support under uncertainty. TRUST-ESD evaluates feasible counterfactual strategies through predictive utility estimation, conformal uncertainty calibration, CVaR-based downside-risk scoring, risk-memory retrieval, policy-as-code governance, explainability, and human oversight. Unlike prediction-only methods that select actions by maximum expected utility, TRUST-ESD recommends strategies that balance value, reliability, risk exposure, and compliance. Experimental results show that TRUST-ESD improves risk-adjusted utility by 7.95%, reduces risk exposure by 23.22%, reduces CVaR by 23.78%, lowers calibration error by 13.89%, improves explanation fidelity by 10.90%, and increases governance compliance by 9.76% compared with strong uncertainty-aware baselines, while maintaining competitive predictive accuracy. Ablation and case-study analyses further confirm that uncertainty calibration, downside-risk scoring, risk memory, explainability, and governance validation jointly improve trustworthy enterprise decision-making.