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This study develops a stage-structured deterministic mathematical model to analyze the impact of Fall Armyworm (FAW) larval instars on maize production dynamics across vegetative and reproductive stages. Analytical results reveal four equilibrium points and conditions for FAW extinction or spread, with numerical simulations highlighting significant maize destruction driven by high egg production and larval density. The model extension to include intervention strategies like handpicking and chemical pesticides demonstrates substantial FAW suppression and increased maize yield.
High FAW egg production and larval density decimate maize crops in both vegetative and reproductive stages, but traditional interventions can restore yields.
Fall Armyworm (FAW) poses a serious threat to maize production in many regions due to its aggressive feeding habits and rapid development cycle. In this study, we developed and analyzed a stage-structured mathematical model to evaluate the impact of different FAW larval instars on maize dynamics during the vegetative and reproductive stages. Analytical results indicate that the two models have unique and positively bounded solutions for all time $t\geq 0$ and admit four equilibrium points: the trivial, non-trivial, maize extinction and coexistence equilibria. The behavior of the model was studied using stability analysis to find conditions under which FAW dies out or continues to spread. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis and numerical simulations were conducted to examine how key parameters affect FAW population dynamics and maize. Numerical simulations of the model in both stages indicate that there is high destruction of maize plants in both vegetative and reproductive stages of maize production due to increased egg production and larval population density. The extensive damage caused by large populations of eggs, larvae and adult moths motivated an extension of the two models to include intervention measures such as traditional methods like handpicking and chemical pesticides. Numerical results indicate that these control strategies significantly suppressed the FAW population with a resultant increase in the maize plant population towards its maximum capacity during the vegetative and reproductive stages, respectively.