Ocean acidification pushes Mediterranean marine calcifiers toward a tipping point

The increasing emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) is altering seawater chemistry, lowering ocean pH and threatening marine biodiversity. Predicting how marine biota will be adversely affected by ocean acidification (OA) remains a key challenge. Here, we document that functional morphological traits offer a more robust metric of calcifier sensitivity to OA than taxonomic diversity alone. Using benthic foraminifera from a Mediterranean CO2 vent system, we identify an empirically derived pH threshold beyond which community structure and function shift markedly. Applying this threshold to end-of-century projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP5-8.5 reveals that most western Mediterranean coastal zones will exceed critical acidification levels by 2090–2100. These results highlight the susceptibility of the Mediterranean coastal ecosystems to OA under high-emission scenarios, underscoring the risk of widespread biodiversity loss and impaired ecosystem functioning. Our approach provides a trait-based framework for forecasting ecosystem responses to OA and informing adaptation strategies in climate-sensitive marine regions.